What is the probability of a hantavirus pandemic?

Two complementary estimates converge on 'low'. (1) Polymarket prediction market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?' currently trades at 9% YES probability with $2.2M total volume — down sharply from a 38% peak on May 5, 2026 after WHO clarified the outbreak is 'not the next COVID'. (2) WHO assesses 'public health risk to global population as low' as of May 7, 2026. Why low? Andes virus has limited human-to-human transmission requiring close prolonged contact; the natural reservoir (specific rodent species) is geographically constrained; and high mortality (30-40%) actually reduces transmission by hospitalizing or killing hosts before they can infect others. The 6-week incubation period means cases may continue to surface through mid-June 2026, but pandemic-level spread requires efficient sustained human transmission, which Andes virus has never demonstrated.